“From Power to Peril: Sheikh Hasina’s Fall from Grace in Bangladesh”

Sheikh Hasina’s recent downfall is shocking only to those who ignored the clear signs of trouble in Bangladesh. Despite winning a third consecutive term in January, Hasina’s Awami League faced accusations of election rigging and a boycott from major opposition parties, casting a shadow over the vote’s legitimacy.

Over the past six months, Hasina’s regime has intensified its crackdown on dissent, with increased arrests of opposition leaders and severe restrictions on free speech. What was once a strong development narrative has lost its charm, as economic progress fails to meet the high expectations of a nation where over 60% of the population is between 15 and 65 years old. The lingering impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has left many businesses struggling to recover.

Civil unrest erupted last month, marking the most significant unrest in two decades. Protests, initially sparked by controversial job quotas for freedom fighters’ descendants, quickly escalated nationwide. Despite a temporary reprieve from the Supreme Court’s July 21 decision to reduce the reservation, the protests resumed, and the Hasina government’s harsh response led to over 100 deaths in just two days and at least 300 in the past two months.

Hasina’s forced resignation and flight from the country underscore the perils of a quest for total domination and a politically monopolized landscape. Her secular and modernizing vision of Bangladeshi nationalism clashed with the deeply rooted divide between secular nationalists and Muslim nationalists, contributing to her downfall. Her refusal to engage with dissenting views and her labeling of protesters as “razakars” only fueled the backlash.

India now faces a delicate challenge: distancing itself from Hasina’s authoritarian regime while preserving a valuable state-to-state relationship. The presence of Islamist elements among the protesters adds urgency to this task. New Delhi must navigate this transition with strategic patience to safeguard its interests and manage the high-stakes relationship with Bangladesh.

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